Real yields and gold
Gold has no yield of its own — its opportunity cost is whatever real return is available elsewhere. When real rates fall, gold becomes comparatively more attractive; when they rise, the inverse applies.
This relationship is real but imperfect. Geopolitical stress, currency debasement fears and central-bank buying all disrupt the correlation at times. Price moves driven by any single factor rarely persist.
Reading the signal
A sharp rally on thin volume is often technical or sentiment-driven. Sustained moves accompanied by physical demand from sovereign buyers or large private allocators carry more structural weight.
Track COMEX open interest and ETF flows alongside spot. Divergence between paper and physical markets is a useful leading indicator.
